Evan D.After a few delays due to the devastating fires in and around Los Angeles, the Academy finally announced their nominees for the 97th edition of the Oscars. It has been long documented, including on this site that the strikes back in 2023 meant a lot of traditional awards films were unable to be completed and released for 2024. Functionally this shifted Academy voters into a discovery mode. Perhaps nothing encapsulates this dynamic more than the 13 nominations for Emilia Pérez, a strangely paced musical about a trans cartel leader. The best picture nominations are as eclectic as ever between traditional Oscar-bait type films like A Complete Unknown or The Brutalist alongside body horror oddity The Substance and two international films in the French produced, Mexican set Emilia Pérez and Brazil’s I’m Still Here. Broadness in the nominees is, in a way, a good reflection of the lack of consensus the year’s very best have had. As always, we will be breaking down the flashy, above the line categories: All 4 Acting categories, Directing and Best Picture. We will give an estimate of where the race stands, analyze the biggest surprises and highlight some of the most deserving films, performers and directors who missed the cut. Best Actress in a Lead RoleThe Nominees: Cynthia Erivo - Wicked Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez Mikey Madison - Anora Demi Moore - The Substance Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here The Favorite: Demi Moore If you had told me a couple months ago that Demi Moore would be in this group for The Substance, I would have already penciled her name into the surprise category, but here we are the day after nominations were announced and Moore is pretty comfortably the favorite at this point. She has already won at the Golden Globes and has picked up nominations with just about every precursor group. A bit odd that it would be for a movie like The Substance, but the Academy does like to honor those that have put in their time in Hollywood and Moore certainly has had a respected career for a long while. None of that to discount the performance itself which is intense and physical. For all the flashier moments and body horror freakouts, her performance in one scene in front of a bathroom mirror perfectly contextualizes the whole film. Watch Out For: Mikey Madison Mikey Madison, much like Anora, has been the frontrunner since the film premiered at Cannes and could still very much win should The Substance prove too unsettling for some voters. Madison’s Ani is spiky, concealing her insecurity behind a coat of barbed wire. Her performance, at times shifting from funny to devastating, holds together a film that could only work with a lead that could hold all those multitudes together. The Surprise: Fernanda Torres After the Demi Moore surge in recent weeks, four names in this category seemed locked up and that proved to be true. Torres was the one of a handful of actresses in contention who made it in. She is tremendous in I’m Still Here, steeling herself scene after scene against the horrors she endures to protect her family. She’s the surprise only in as much as there was one given that she won a Golden Globe last month. Wonderful performance in a wonderful film. The Snubs: Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths If you squint hard enough you could see a scenario where Pamela Anderson got nominated, Nicole Kidman seemed to be in the mix for a while, Saoirse Ronan sadly never really was. If I was picking the impossible name I would have liked to see in here it would have been Léa Seydoux for her knockout triple role in The Beast. But the one snub who both had a shot and gave the kind of performance that demands to be seen was Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths. Her Pansy, an unflinchingly curmudgeon, is so deftly realized that the film around her struggles to keep up. Jean-Baptiste captures in each of Pansy’s outbursts and subsequent crash outs the fundamental feeling of loneliness that plagues so many, self-inflicted or not. I would swap her in for Cynthia Erivo or Karla Sofía Gascón, both of whom gave good performances in films I was less enamored by. Best Actor in a lead RoleThe Nominees: Adrien Brody - The Brutalist Timotheé Chalamet - A Complete Unknown Colman Domingo - Sing Sing Ralph Fiennes - Conclave Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice The Favorite: Timotheé Chalamet Its a dead heat at this point between Chalamet and Brody and I can see the arguments on either side. The argument for Chalamet feels stronger though considering he has never won, learned to play the guitar and sing meaning the Acadmey could hit a trifecta of acting biases: crowning a young performer, honoring a transformation and awarding a biopic performance. For me Chalamet’s Dylan is more imitation than illumination, in a way reflective of the film itself. Still he capably mimics Dylan closely enough that you can sink into the story and with a subject that famous, that is impressive. Watch Out For: Adrien Brody The argument for Brody is narrower but should be more convincing in a vacuum: the performance is immense. In nearly every scene of a three and a half hour epic about a tortured genius and his legacy in places that do not accept him, Brody holds attention for every moment. Chalamet may have all the Oscar checkboxes marked but will they be able to deny such a powerhouse of a performance? I also wonder how much the revelation that generative AI assisted some of Brody’s Hungarian dialogue will be used to damage his case. For now the margin is razor thin. The Surprise: Sebastian Stan A lot of competition for one final spot in this category and Stan is a great choice for it. Maybe the bigger surprise is that he was nominated for The Apprentice rather than A Different Man, a film that is more critically appreciated. His portrayal of Trump is almost the polar opposite of what we just talked about with Chalamet where he doesn’t perfectly nail the voice or mannerisms but still captures so precisely the insecurity and narcissism of Trump that he often disappears completely into the character. It is an unsettling performance in an unsettling film and a worthy inclusion here. The Snub: Justice Smith - I Saw the TV Glow By most accounts Sebastian Stan’s inclusion edged out either his own performance in A Different Man or Daniel Craig’s in Queer. I have not seen the latter so I will reach a bit for the Independent Spirit nominated Justice Smith. He is tremendous as the dysphoric Owen in Jane Schoenbrun’s Lynchian allegory for transness. That the film didn’t get any recognition this Oscar season is expected but unfortunate. Smith’s uneasy performance intensifies as his character spirals, emphasizing the urgency of the film. I would probably switch him with Chalamet but the field here is a good one. Best Actress in a Supporting RoleThe Nominees: Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown Ariana Grande - Wicked Felicity Jones - The Brutalist Isabella Rossellini - Conclave Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez The Favorite: Zoe Saldaña I may not understand the fervor around Emilia Pérez but anyone who sees the film will likely agree that Zoe Saldaña is about the only reason it works at all. She often feels like the only character actually grounded in the story even as she pulls of some of the best song and dance numbers of anyone in the cast. Even if she is really the lead of the film, she’s won most of the precursors and Emilia Pérez. clearly has traction. I don’t particularly like the film but Saldaña is undeniably good and I can’t blame the Academy for wanting to honor an actress that has been a part of the biggest box office hits of the last decade spreading her wings and showing a different element of herself. Watch Out For: Ariana Grande Tough to pick a contender in a category that feels locked up as of now, but if Wicked has a big surge on Oscars night watch for Ariana Grande to ride that wave too. Another supporting nominee that is arguably a co lead, Grande steals just about every scene she’s in. From her hair flips to her laugh out loud performance of the best number in the film, Popular, I’m not surprised that voters were taken with Galinda. For all the baffling Wicked love this season, the attention for Ariana Grande is well earned. The Surprise: Monica Barbaro A Complete Unknown overperformed expectations on nomination morning and Barbaro is one of those who seemed on the cusp going into the day. I’m glad to see her name on the list as she does an even better job sinking into Joan Baez than Chalamet does as Dylan. That is not an easy performer to emulate well and Barbaro gives depth to the character through performance that Mangold’s script does not often provide to the women of the film. The Snub: Jamie Lee Curtis - The Last Showgirl There is a case to be made for Margaret Qualley in The Substance, but I like this field of supporting actresses so lets go with the snub that comes as more of a relief. Jamie Lee Curtis, just a few years removed from a questionable nomination and win for Everything Everywhere All at Once appeared to on track to get nominated again for another cartoonish performance in an otherwise well acted film. She racked up nominations at SAG and other precursors but ultimately fell short here and saved us some discourse. Best Actor in a Supporting RoleThe Nominees: Yura Borisov - Anora Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown Guy Pearce - The Brutalist Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice The Favorite: Kieran Culkin It’s early but it feels like many of the acting awards are close to locked up already, maybe none more so than Culkin. In a lesser film or portrayed by a lesser performer his spark plug character might feel over the top and suffocating. Instead Culkin’s Benji neatly foils the insecurities of Jesse Eisenberg’s David, accentuating all the ways the lead he feels too shy or too stuck up. Even if he’s more of a co-lead, Culkin’s performance does what the very best supporting performances do by creating depth for the characters around him. Watch Out For: Yura Borisov Anora collected nominations in all the categories you would want to in order to really compete but somehow it still feels like its running behind some contenders with more momentum. Borisov falls into that same category here as a strong contender stuck behind a stronger one. His Igor is the sympathetic core of the the film, simultaneously playing support and antagonist to Mikey Madison’s Ani. The other hired goons out to break up a marriage between Ani and the son of a Russian oligarch can play cartoonish at times but Borisov keenly contrasts them to reinforce the ideas of class threaded through the film. The Surprise: Jeremy Strong You could put Edward Norton here too although neither is the most surprising nominee as both were squarely in the mix throughout awards season. Strong gets the edge her because The Apprentice is certainly a more difficult film than A Complete Unknown. Strong is also really great as Roy Cohn, playing a real life devil deteriorating as his disciple outgrows his own vileness. In what seemed like it might be an impossible tightrope to walk, Strong manages to show the craven depths of Cohn while still generating some sympathy for someone who deserved absolutely none of it. Its impressive work that deserved this recognition. The Snub: Clarence “Divine Eye” Maclin - Sing Sing I am sympathetic to arguments on behalf of Adam Pearson in A Different Man or even Josh O’Connor in Challengers but for me there was no better supporting performance than Maclin playing a fictionalized version of himself across from an established Academy Award nominated actor. There is a certain level of vulnerability and humility necessary to tell such a nuanced version of your own story and Maclin plays to that beautifully. Its a tough field but I would swap him in for Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. Best DirectorThe Nominees: Sean Baker - Anora Brady Corbet - The Brutalist James Mangold - A Complete Unknown Jacques Audiard - Emilia Pérez Coralie Fargeat - The Substance The Favorite: Brady Corbet Unlike the acting categories, it is tough to pin down who is in pole position at this point for directing. Why not go with the director of the year’s towering achievement? The Brutalist is a bit uneven and unwieldy at times but that it got made at all is a testament to what Corbet was able to pull off here. Faults and all, this is a film that works tremendously well across nearly four hours despite costing just a fraction of the budget of other films of similar scale. I think voters will be compelled to honor Corbet for his unflinching dedication to telling the story of pursuing art and directorial vision over any obstacle. Watch Out For: Jacques Audiard I will forever be baffled by what people see in Emilia Pérez but if one thing that appeals to them is the audacity of the story, musical numbers and overall risk taking then Audiard is the one to credit for taking the swing. He has taken some heat for seemingly lacking any interest in input from Mexican people in his Mexico set story nor the feedback of trans folks in his trans story that should theoretically hurt him. That said, the Emilia Pérez parade was strong nomination morning so this group of voters seems unbothered. The film is certainly bold and popular among a subset of the Academy The Surprise: James Mangold Almost went with Fargeat here because The Substance really does not work for me, but that film, like Emilia Pérez, is such a wild swing that you at least have to respect the effort. Instead Mangold getting in was the somewhat surprising beneficiary of a surge in support for his film among the nominating committees. A director I generally like pretty well, Mangold doesn’t do a whole lot in my opinion to mine depth out of this particular chapter of Bob Dylan’s life. His film builds a lot of tension — between Dylan’s love interests, between the folk community and the new rock scene — but very little of it builds into an interior portrait of Dylan beyond the iconoclast the rest of the world saw. Its capably shot and stitched together but I cannot help but feel like a director less enamored by Dylan and his music might have found more of the person underneath it all. The Snub: RaMell Ross - Nickel Boys A number of impressively directed films missed the cut this year. Mohammad Rasoulof took great personal risk to make The Seed of the Sacred Fig and the result is a sizzling thriller that deserved more than it got in the awards race. Jane Schoenbrun would be here in an ideal world and the complete lack of I Saw the TV Glow across the board is disappointing too. More than any other film though, this category truly suffers by excluding the work of Ross. Nickel Boys is more than just a tremendous film, it pushes the boundaries of what we have come to expect from narrative filmmaking. The choices made by Ross turn the film from an urgent story into a deep well of empathy. I would slot him in for Mangold and would probably swap out Fargeat and Audiard for the other two directors mentioned here. Best PictureThe Nominees:
The Favorite: Emilia Pérez I have said it a few times here but I do not understand what the Academy sees in this film. Watching its nominees pop up in category felt like watching some sort of mass psychosis. If the voters were looking to honor a trans story in the wake of the election, they chose one that seems to be hated by the trans community. If they love the audacious spectacle and musicality, there are better films fitting that bill with fewer nominations. That said, 13 nominations is tied for second most all time, the same amount as Oppenheimer last year. Films with the most nominations don’t always win the big prize, but in a year without a clear consensus frontrunner, Emilia Pérez clearly has the enthusiasm. The biggest risk will be in the Academy’s ranked voting that may benefit less divisive films Watch Out For: The Brutalist If Emilia Pérez is 1A on the Best Picture list, there are at least 3 or 4 films in the 1B position that could reasonably challenge it. Wicked continues to be widely admired in the below the line fields and could offer a feel good alternative that more voters can agree on. Anora has been the frontrunner for most of the year even if momentum has somewhat slipped. Speaking of momentum, A Complete Unknown seems to be surging with all the big category nominations you would expect from a Best Picture winner. For now we will go with the other film that was widely nominated, The Brutalist. Both are the types of movie that routinely gets recognized at the Oscars but the narrative of The Brutalist as a monument to filmmaking puts it ahead of the field for now. The Surprise: I’m Still Here In a year where things have been so unsettled, a lot of nominees could be considered surprising but nothing was as shocking as the announcement of I’m Still Here in the best picture field. It makes sense Walter Salles’ film is surging considering it concerns the ever looming threat of fascism and lasting scars it leaves behind. Perhaps it is the right movie at the right time or maybe the nominating members who have caught it so far recognize that this is a tremendous piece of filmmaking. Either way I’m Still Here was the best surprise of nomination morning. Less surprising but equally exciting, Nickel Boys nomination here was more relief than shock. The Snub: No Other Land Going a bit off the board with this one. Sing Sing is an obvious choice for the film thought to be in the mix that came up short although A24 mishandled its campaign pretty badly. A Real Pain is another that lost steam this season and could reasonably be considered a snub. Just to shout it out I am going with the best film not nominated here, even if it didn’t ever stand a chance to get into Best Picture. That is No Other Land. Handily the best documentary of the year, the most urgent film of the year, it is also incredibly well structured, emotional and insightful. Without a distributor to campaign the film, No Other Land never had a shot at the big prize even if it would be the most worthy winner. I’d actually put all three in at the expense of Emilia Pérez, The Substance and Wicked, in that order.
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