Oscar Nominations 2026

Evan D.

It is hard to argue that The Academy has not improved over the years as they have diversified their membership. What gets nominated for their annual best in film awards has also seen its average quality improve in tandem. Although familiar names — Guillermo del Toro, Chloe Zhao, Joseph Kosinski and Yorgos Lanthimos — return to the biggest races, their films elide what we have come to think of as standard Oscar bait. Leading the way with a record 16 nominations is Ryan Coogler’s starkly original Sinners. Not far behind with 13 is Paul Thomas Anderson’s sizzling One Battle After Another. I can quibble with a few nominations here and there but on balance its a great group. As always, we will be breaking down the flashy, above the line categories: All 4 Acting categories, Directing and Best Picture. We’ll also try to highlight as many films as possible so if your favorite “snub” was left out leave a comment below. 

---

Actress in A Leading Role

The Nominees:

Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
Emma Stone - Bugonia

The Favorite: Jessie Buckley

It’s not easy to turn the emotional manipulation of an imperiled child, long a crutch of weepy cinema, into something that feels deeper than simple grief. But that is exactly what Buckley pulls off as Agnes in Hamnet. There is a signature ferocity in her eyes that dulls over the course of the film, a flint that she can almost turn on and off in moment. I’ve long been a big fan (see my Best Actress Snub from 2021) and will be thrilled to see Buckley take home that statuette in March. 

Watch Out For: Rose Byrne

The margin for error for Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is smaller than most performances because the camera spends most of the film inches from her face. Every twitch and tic builds together into this deeply anxious portrait of a woman completely out of her depth. Not an easy performance in a really prickly film that the Academy was otherwise happy to ignore. She won a Golden Globe and it would not be surprising at all to hear her name called on stage at the Oscars. 

The Surprise: Kate Hudson

This is kind of cool. Song Sung Blue was sort of hanging around the edges of the Oscar race, for better or worse, and I believe a lot of that came from the radiant Hudson performance at its core. She breathes joy into the early parts of the film and then saps it all out when the story calls for it. Great to see her name on the nomination list. 

The Snub: Chase Infinity - One Battle After Another 

Eva Victor is another name that comes to mind, but one of the biggest snubs of nomination morning had to be Chase Infinity missing out for One Battle After Another. Anderson waited years to make the film, searching for exactly the right fit for Willa. Infinity’s confidence and competence play such a wonderful contrast to the larger than life actors and performances around her and help to earn the fantastic ending of the film. To see her forgotten in an otherwise wildly celebrated film is unfortunate.

---

Actor in a Leading Role

The Nominees:

Timotheé Chalamet - Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another 
Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon 
Michael B. Jordan - Sinners
Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent

The Favorite: Timotheé Chalamet

A year after narrowly losing out to Adrian Brody, Chalamet finds himself in another close Best Picture battle, this time one he is likely to win. Now, nobody go look who I picked in this spot last year. Chalamet is a tour de force as Marty Mauser, deftly playing the absurd confidence with just enough vulnerability that he keeps you on his side through some seriously bad behavior. As someone who has never fully been on board for the rising star of Timotheé, this performance is a real statement. 

Watch Out For: Leonardo DiCaprio

Before Marty Supreme, DiCaprio’s performance as a former revolutionary turned well intentioned stoner dad felt like a shoe-in for Best Actor. Given that his one previous win was something of a career achievement, this hilariously touching role gave voters a chance to award one of Leo’s best and crown him as the defining actor of his generation. He’s got a chance still but this one feels like Chalamet’s to lose. 

The Surprise: Ethan Hawke

It’s strange to call Ethan Hawke a surprise when it really feels like he has an outside shot to win the statue. Still, Blue Moon was only able to get Hawke in and a screenplay nomination, meaning the film is not quite as beloved as the performance. A performance that is intricate and not easy to pull off. In the wrong hands, much like Marty Mauser, Lorenz Hart could have come across as obnoxious or grating. Instead, as played by Hawke, he’s a tragicomic figure, not quite as brilliant as he thinks and not quite as hopeless. 

The Snub: Joel Edgerton - Train Dreams

A number of names could have claimed this spot; Jesse Plemons goes toe to toe with Emma Stone in Bugonia, Josh O’Connor had a couple really great performances this year. I find it fascinating that Train Dreams found a spot in Best Picture but not for Edgerton considering just how much the success of that particular film rests on the shoulders of its lead actor. If we don’t believe Edgerton as this gentle, simple man in a rugged and rapidly changing world, the whole thing falls apart.

---

Actress in a Supporting Role

The Nominees:

Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan - Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another

The Favorite: Teyana Taylor

Here is a category that still feels very up in the air and one that actually does include true supporting performances from each nominee. I could see voters going any direction here but given the strength of One Battle After Another, Teyana Taylor’s firebrand performance seems like a good bet. She only features in the prologue of the film but gives such a riveting presence to the story that she serves as the beating heart of the story all the way through. A special performance in a special film.

Watch Out For: Amy Madigan

Weapons was nobody’s idea of an Oscar hopeful but the cult horror hit did garner some attention, especially for Madigan as the villainous Aunt Gladys. She’s certainly an entertaining presence in an entertaining film but I think the combination of Madigan as a respected working actor and the transformative makeup work pushed her over the edge here. As encouraging as it is to finally get a compelling horror performance recognized, for me, this is not on the same level as Lupita Nyong’o in Us or Toni Collette in Hereditary. Still, Madigan has momentum in a pretty open field so don’t count this one out. 

The Surprise: Wunmi Mosaku

Much like her costar Delroy Lindo, Wunmi Mosaku’s nomination is a very pleasant surprise and a sign of momentum for Sinners. She’s a delight and crucial player in the Sinners success story, grounding the film when the more fantastical elements start to take over. A much deserved nomination.

The Snub: Ariana Grande - Wicked For Good

No doubt, there are many better performances this year than Ariana Grande’s — she was genuinely good in the first one! — but let’s use this space to talk about how odd it is for an expected contender to get totally shut out. The first Wicked was a nomination powerhouse and the much worse sequel got blanked. By the time nominations rolled around Grande seemed like the only real chance Wicked For Good had and even that didn’t materialize. Regina Hall in One Battle, Mariam Afshari in It Was Just an Accident Gwyneth Paltrow in Marty Supreme all could be good picks here.

---

Actor in a Supporting Role

The Nominees:

Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another 
Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo - Sinners
Sean Penn - One Battle After Another 
Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value

The Favorite: Stellan Skarsgard

In my estimation, this is the toughest category to project. Might the two One Battle actors steal votes from one another? Nobody stands out as a sure fire front runner so lets go with the well liked and respected Swede. Skarsgard is great as the closed off father in Sentimental Value and he gave a great speech at the Golden Globes that may prove impactful in a close race. I could see him being identified as the core of a film that received a lot of love nomination morning, especially for its acting. 

Watch Out For: Jacob Elordi

Again, if the One Battle boys split votes, the door really opens up in this category and Elordi could just as well be the beneficiary. He’s good in Frankenstein, probably the best part of an uneven film, but this is also one of those nominations that feels somewhat driven by makeup and hairstyling work. Much like the film itself, one of those nominations that intellectually makes sense, but that doesn’t speak to me personally. 

The Surprise: Delroy Lindo

Let’s start by saying: Delroy Lindo rocks and is so good in Sinners. To call his nomination a surprise is not to undercut the great energy he brings to his film. There was a pervasive belief that if Lindo and Mosaku made it in their respective supporting categories, it might reveal more strength for their film than previously assumed. So chalk this one up as a very pleasant surprise, getting a lovely actor and a deserving performance into the mix after spending most of the season just outside the race.

The Snub: Adam Sandler - Jay Kelly 

Plenty of options in this slot — apparently Paul Mescal was being run in supporting for Hamnet? — but lets go with the perpetual debate; should Adam Sandler win an Oscar? So far the Academy has decisively come down on the negative side of that. Momentum seems to be pulling in that direction though as the Sand Man hangs around the race every time he gives a more drama forward performance. He’s a bright spot in an otherwise forgettable movie that clearly did not leave much impression on the voters.

---

Best Director

The Nominees:

Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another 
Ryan Coogler - Sinners
Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
Chloe Zhao - Hamnet

The Favorite: Paul Thomas Anderson

Watch Out For: Ryan Coogler

Let’s combine our top two contenders here as Oscar night sure seems to be shaping up into one battle after another between PTAs revolutionaries and Coogler’s vampiric horde. Sinners has the edge in nominations, One Battle in precursor hardware so far. The difference in the Director category might be the long history of close misses for Anderson and a desire to award someone who has made some of the most impactful films of the last couple decades. Coogler has quite the track record himself in a still relatively young career and voters might see this as a first of many nominations for someone who seems to have a really keen ability to blend big broad studio sensibility with really insightful and personal meaning. 

The Surprise: Josh Safdie

Not to say a nomination is undeserved for one of the most assuredly chaotic films of the year, it remains a bit surprising that the Academy fell so hard for a Safdie movie. Softening the edges off of an Uncut Gems style thriller probably helped and it is hard to imagine Marty Supreme working at all if not for Safdie steadily steering a story that constantly pushes the audience to the brink of turning on its lead character. One of the more fun nominations of the day.

The Snub: Eva Victor - Sorry Baby

I’m not saying that Eva Victor was even in the mix here for her smartly funny and moving Sundance darling, but I am saying she should have been. Sorry Baby blends very dark, traumatic material with a sense of humor that keeps the whole film engaging but also betrays a wounded element of its characters. That tightrope is a tremendously thin one and that Victor deftly walked it in her debut feature is all the more impressive. Disappointing to see her film not show up in any category this year, but absolutely it is one to seek out.

---

Best Picture

The Nominees:

Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another 
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams

The Favorite: One Battle After Another

Paul Thomas Anderson’s thrill a minute dramedy has been the front runner for months now, scooping up just about every award its contended for. And for good reason, One Battle After Another is extraordinary. That rare combination of high-octane energy you can only get on the big screen and a deeply felt, timely message. The kind of film that would be not only deserving, but an exciting Best Picture winner.

Watch Out For: Sinners

The race for months now has seemed like a heavyweight fight between One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. While PTA’s film has been scooping up awards, Sinners had a very encouraging nomination morning. After a record breaking nomination haul that included some surprise acting nominations, Sinners standing in the race is improved. And what a delight that is. Coogler’s film is exciting and original, exactly the sort of film we usually lament getting overlooked this time of year. 

The Surprise: F1

Most prognosticators believed one of the year’s populist films — something like Wicked For Good or Avatar: Fire and Ash — would find its way onto the Best Picture list. Turns out F1 was what Academy voters decided was the popcorn film of the year. Sure, why not? Joseph Kosinski’s race car thriller is impressive on a technical level and, for my money, better than the aforementioned alternatives. But if a faction of the Academy insists on a crowd pleaser, I found a lot more to like this year in something like 28 Years Later or Superman.

The Snub: It Was Just an Accident

Given what we just said about the surprise of F1, it is more likely that the film keeping Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winner out of Best Picture was Train Dreams. Not to disparage Clint Bentley’s lovely slice of life film. It Was Just an Accident is among the exiled Iranian filmmaker’s most accessible films, but it is also crackling with political intrigue. Given what is currently going on in Panahi’s home country and the world more broadly, his searing look at the festering wounds inflicted by authoritarianism would have made for a very deserving Best Picture contender.

---