Oscar Nominations 2024

Evan D.

After a year off we are back with our annual Oscar nomination recap! Last year saw a massive pool of truly phenomenal films, making it difficult to project how Academy voters would winnow down the field of tremendous stories and performances. As always that process picks up some duds and omits some wonderful pieces of art. For the most part, this year was more good than bad and many of the seemingly biggest snubs came in stacked categories. A bit too much attention went to Oscar bait-y Maestro and another film got a baffling pair of acting nominations, but generally it was a day to celebrate in the above the line categories. 

As always I will break down the favorites, the potential upsets, the surprises and the snubs in each of the acting categories, Best Director and Best Picture. Surprises can be good or bad so long as the nomination was the most unexpected of the bunch. I will try to highlight as many different films as possible so the snub identified may not be the only one or even the most notable. Finally, and importantly, if you think something has been snubbed, you have to be willing to take something nominated off the board. All of my snub picks will also indicate what picture or performer I would take out to accommodate. 

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Best Actress in a Lead Role

The Nominees:

Annette Bening - NYAD
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan - Maestro
Emma Stone - Poor Things

The Favorite: Lily Gladstone

Lily Gladstone is the heart, soul and moral center of Killers of the Flower Moon. Stoic in the face of unceasing grief and torment, she stands taller than anyone in the film as the wolves begin to circle. Gladstone does so much with little in the way of dialogue, conveying as much with her steely gaze as she does with the few biting words she does utter. In the back half of the film, confined mostly to bed, Gladstone still commands every scene she is in. Truly the performance of the year and even fickle Academy voters will recognize that as well. 

Watch Out For: Sandra Hüller

It’s been a big year for Hüller where her work probably should have garnered her another nomination in Supporting Actress for The Zone of Interest. What she does in Anatomy of a Fall is deeply impressive as the performance requires her to thread the needle between guilt and innocence and find this small zone of ambiguity. As well constructed as Anatomy of a Fall is, it only works if the audience simultaneously believes that Sandra is capable of and innocent to the central murder in question. Leaning too far in either direction and the mystery unravels, Hüller walks the tightrope and the whole film is better for it. 

The Surprise: Annette Bening

Out of every nominee this year, in any category, Annette Bening in Best Actress for her portrayal of Diana Nyad is the most baffling. NYAD is not a particularly good film, it got no attention outside of acting, and I would go so far as to say that Annette Bening is actively bad in the role. By all accounts, Nyad was gruff and difficult but determined in a way that is endearing. Bening manages the first couple traits but pushes past the realism that allows for the audience to keep rooting for her. By all accounts Bening trained intensely for a year to prepare, spending hours in the pool. Admirable dedication that surely spoke to acting branch, but you have to invest in the character to care about her swimming.

The Snubs: Greta Lee - Past Lives

Although I am more partial to Barbie and Margot Robbie’s nuanced performance as the titular doll, another Barbie snub will come up so I want to highlight another film that deserved more love from the Academy. Past Lives got into Best Picture, which is no easy feat for an indie film out of Sundance, but it lacked recognition for the delicate performances that got it there. None more than Greta Lee, whose allows her character’s internal tug of war to only just break the surface. It’s not the flashy type of acting that gets attention this time of year, but easily the most crucial component of an intimate love triangle of a film. I would have swapped her in for Annette Bening in ​NYAD.

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Best Actor In A Lead Role

The Nominees:

Bradley Cooper - Maestro
Colman Domingo - Rustin
Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

The Favorite: Cillian Murphy

If Oppenheimer is destined to be a powerhouse this season, it makes some sense that Murphy will pick up his first Oscar win on his first nomination. His progression from idealism to deep resignation anchors a film that is focused more on the fallout from the bomb on the people who created it than devastation it imposed on its Japanese victims. That is not a criticism of the film, which manages to capture exactly what it intends, but rather an indication of how important Murphy is to making this massive film feel human. His implosion, caused by his own creation, gives harrowing life and truth to Oppenheimer at every turn. If he does win as expected it will be wholly deserved. 

Watch Out For: Paul Giamatti

Giamatti has been nominated twice at the Oscars but the statuette has yet eluded him. That could change this year as he best poised to challenge Oppenheimer. If Nolan’s film is the one that most impressed voters, it seems fair to say that The Holdovers is the film that most charmed them. The way Giamatti’s curmudgeonly teacher thaws over the deepest parts of winter is some of the best acting of the year. It gets at both the spikiness that Giamatti is known for and also a vulnerability that defies expectations. 

The Surprise: Colman Domingo

Rustin is the only film of this bunch I have not been able to get to and from my understanding its an imperfect film that Domingo is quite good in. That isn’t surprising as it has been something of theme for his career of late. Acknowledging that Domingo’s performance may well be great, the surprise of this nomination is more about recognition for a film that seems to have garnered very little attention or acclaim throughout the season.

The Snub: Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon

Pour one out for Zac Efron, but the real snub in this category is Leonardo DiCaprio. The villainous Ernest Burkhart is as good a performance as anything DiCaprio has ever put to screen. He takes his character’s evil intentions and wraps them up in the cloak of a slimy doofus. He avoids the shiny veneer of Jordan Belfort that confused a bunch of morons about the message of The Wolf of Wall Street by making sure Ernest’s rotten soul is borne on the outside as well. A lesser actor would have veered into cartoonish with this character but DiCaprio never lets Ernest be enough of a simpleton to exonerate his evil deeds. I would have swapped him in for Bradley Cooper in Maestro.

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Actress in a Supporting Role

The Nominees:

Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
America Ferrera - Barbie
Jodie Foster - NYAD
Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

The Favorite: Da’Vine Joy Randolph 

Late in the second act, The Holdovers starts to lag from the energy it sustained for much of the early part of the film. Not coincidentally that segment coincides with Randolph’s Mary briefly exiting the main plot. Her performance as a heartbroken mother is not just the best of a very well acted film, it is in contention for the very best performance given by anyone this year. Randolph plays Mary as fractured but willing herself from completely breaking. She is caring despite the enormous pain she shoulders. She has been picking up all the precursor nominations and wins she needs to indicate that Academy voters agree on this one. 

Watch Out For: Emily Blunt

A win for Emily Blunt would almost certainly indicate an Oppenheimer sweep. Always game, Blunt delivers on the one major moment she is provided in the script. Her withering testimony toward the end of the film will look great in the nomination reel but it really is an outlier for her character whose main role is looking drunk most of the time. Blunt is an excellent actress and gets the most out of Kitty Oppenheimer but it’s a performance that does not get enough of a chance to match some of her competitors here. 

The Surprise: America Ferrera

America Ferrera getting into Supporting Actress while Gerwig and Robbie were snubbed is genuinely shocking. There was very little indication from precursor awards that she was on the radar. As far as surprises go, its a nice one as a lot is asked of Ferrera as the most significant human character in Barbie. Feelings for this nomination will probably come down to how one feels about her defining speech in the third act, I think it works and am glad to see some attention come her way. 

The Snub: Penelope Cruz - Ferrari 

Everything I have said and will say about Oppenheimer could, in theory apply to Ferrari. In another world this could be the film by a big director perceived to be overdue, a biopic of a significant figure, that is well acted and big on ideas. Alas that lane was already full but let’s focus on the well acted part. Penelope Cruz, as we have come to expect from her, is exceptional in Ferrari. Her character actually shares a similar set of experiences with Kitty Oppenheimer but is given the room to pass through grief and push back on her philandering husband. When Cruz erupts, she gives volcanic stakes to the family life that is endangered by Enzo’s ambition. Its a powerhouse performance and a huge omission in the category. I would swap her in for Jodie Foster in NYAD, a performance thats fine but never great.

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Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The Nominees:

Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction
Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

The Favorite: Robert Downey Jr. 

Robert Downey Jr. sheds his supersuit to take on one of the juiciest roles he has ever had. His Lewis Strauss is a scheming nemesis for Murphy’s Oppenheimer. Perhaps it’s the contrast with his perception as a Marvel guy, but RDJ has been talked about as the front runner for Supporting Actor since the summer. Problem is that the character and Downey Jr.’s simmering approach feels like such a distraction from every interesting element of Oppenheimer’s story. The Strauss storyline is woven throughout Nolan’s film but disappears entirely for the long stretch in which we witness the test at Los Alamos and the emotional toll of the bombing of Japan on the engineers. That stretch of story is also the best portion of the film by far. Still, the momentum seems to point towards a resounding win for Robert Downey Jr. in a year that seems poised to award Oppenheimer often.  

Watch Out For: Ryan Gosling


I am sympathetic to the argument that snubbing Robbie and nominating Gosling underscores the satire of Barbie in a way that really stings. He does not steal the show from Barbie as some commentary suggests but Gosling’s performance as Ken is so committed and entertaining that it absolutely deserves the praise and recognition that I wish was also provided to Robbie. If Barbie does fall short to Oppenheimer in all the other categories they compete in, I could see Supporting Actor as the place where voters choose to recognize the biggest film of the year. 

The Surprise: Mark Ruffalo 

It shouldn’t be surprising to see Mark Ruffalo here as his performance in Poor Things is hilariously deplorable. Indeed, Ruffalo’s nomination is not surprising on merit, its the recognition of a delirious actualization of a singular character. Because he and Willem Dafoe have traded nominations in the precursors, Ruffalo’s selection was not a sure thing. All due respect to Dafoe’s delightfully offbeat performance, the voters made the right call between the two.  

The Snub: Charles Melton - May December

May December likely had high expectations after a wave of critical acclaim accompanied its release. Nowhere greater was the disconnect between the acting branch and critics than the supporting role of Charles Melton. Another challenging performance in a thematically difficult film that got overlooked, Melton plays Joe with a devastating amount of arrested development. Without his delicate performance, the film wouldn’t have been able to mine so deeply into the psyches of its two, far more sinister, leads. I would have swapped him in for Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. 

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Best Director

The Nominees:

Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

The Favorite: Christopher Nolan

Oppenheimer’s momentum just feels different than nomination leaders in previous years that didn’t get over the line. Even if that feeling ends up looking foolish when the results are announced, Nolan for director might just be the safest of the nominees. Long regarded as a technical master, he also lost out in the directing category for Dunkirk in 2017 giving him the narrative of being due. I’ve never been a big fan of his proclivity for surprise, a trap he falls into with Oppenheimer as well, but there is no doubt his craft work is among the best of the year. 

Watch Out For: Jonathan Glazer

Much like best picture, Jonathan Glazer’s inclusion in Director means we must take very seriously his chances of winning. The direction of The Zone of Interest is immaculate, showing viewers horrific evil both mundane and exceptional while never allowing them to avert their gaze as it intensifies the discomfort. Every frame is expertly designed to remind audiences of the cruelty of complicity and how easily seemingly regular people can fall in line with fascism and slaughter. This message is especially prescient of the events that have taken place in the months since its release, in large part do to the way Glazer composed it. 

The Surprise: Jonathan Glazer

Again like Best Picture the odds of Glazer being here seemed slimmer than the rest of the nominees. Clearly the work is incredible but it simply had not been meaningfully recognized in a way that would indicate this nomination was incoming. It comes at the expense, likely, of another very different powerhouse, but the surprise is certainly a positive one.

The Snub: Greta Gerwig - Barbie

For my money, Barbie was the best movie of the year. That doesn’t happen without a lot of different elements coming together, but it especially doesn’t happen without expert direction. Big decisions like the thematic weaving of influences like 2001: A Space Odyssey combine with small ones like the threading of Billie Eilish’s beautiful “What Was I Made For?” into key moments of the score and plot. It’s difficult to be furious about this snub because the nominees that did make it did such monumental work, but it is challenging to reconcile the omission with the work that Gerwig did to turn plastic profound and animate the inanimate. I would swap her in for Christopher Nolan and Oppenheimer. 

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Best Picture

​The Nominees:

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

The Favorite: Oppenheimer

It’s this year’s powerhouse film, drawing the most nominations this year and Christopher Nolan’s explosive biopic might actually have the momentum to make good on those nominations. Oppenheimer checks just about every box you would want for your Best Picture winner: a big director perceived to be overdue, biopic of a significant figure, well acted, political but not necessarily preaching. On top of being typical Oscar bait, Oppenheimer is also very good and made a boatload of money. As of now there is no real reason to think that it wont go all the way.

Watch Out For: The Zone of Interest

Possibly the most surprising haul of nominations this season came from Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest. The punishing film about the evil and complacency of Nazi Germany picked up five nominations in a year that Academy voters mostly shied away from pricklier subject matter and performance. Missing out on performance nominations makes me wary of its chances but nominations for directing and screenwriting indicate some level of support. Whether The Zone of Interest wins or not, I have no doubt it will come to be viewed as one of the essential films of the decade. 

The Surprise: The Zone of Interest

For everything I just said about its status as a dark horse contender, The Zone of Interest was certainly the film that was least assured to get a nomination. Inarguably a masterful piece of filmmaking, it is a very difficult film to watch. As we will see in other categories, there is a clear pattern this year of voters turning away from more difficult films and performances. Glazer and his film missed on a lot of precursor nominations leaving the door open for a lot of other films. Ultimately the Academy got this one right as The Zone of Interest is easily a top ten film of the year and its chances of winning should not be dismissed.

The Snub: The Boy and the Heron

As always, Best Picture is the most hotly debated category and there are a number of films that could have been in consideration for the last spots. May December is an example of a well constructed but uneasy watch that voters spurned. The Color Purple had ambitions for a big Oscars push despite some clear flaws with the final product. At the end of the day though it is Miyazaki’s swan song that deserved a better fate than a sole nomination for Animated Feature. Easily one of the best looking and sounding films of the year, The Boy and the Heron is exactly the type of meditation on storytelling that Oscar voters tend to love. I would have swapped it in for Maestro.